What’s Ahead for the Spring Market [East Bay]

“Among all forms of mistake, prophecy is the most gratuitous.” — George Eliot

You may have noticed that we’re usually hesitant to make bold predictions—and for good reason.

That said… sometimes the market makes itself very clear.

And right now, it’s not whispering—it’s yelling.

Not All Inner East Bay Markets Moved in Lockstep in Q4

One of the most interesting takeaways from the fourth quarter was how differently the Inner East Bay performed depending on the city. While headlines often lump the region together, the reality on the ground told a far more nuanced story.

Berkeley continued to command premium pricing, supported by persistent demand and limited inventory. Even as buyers remained selective, well-located and well-presented homes still traded at the top of the market.

Albany, meanwhile, proved to be one of the steadiest performers. The city showed resilience through consistent buyer interest and relatively balanced pricing, reinforcing its reputation as a dependable, low-volatility market within the East Bay.

Oakland stood apart in a different way. In several neighborhoods, buyers found leverage that has been largely absent in recent years. This meant more leverage power, longer days on market, and opportunities to be strategic with negotiations.

Same region. Very different outcomes.

Looking ahead to 2026, this divergence underscores an important shift. Broad regional trends are becoming less useful, while city and neighborhood-level dynamics are increasingly critical. Pricing accuracy will matter more than ever, particularly for sellers. For buyers, well-timed opportunities are emerging for those who know where and how to look.

Layer in lower interest rates, a strong local tech/AI employment base, and a rapidly growing rental market, and the setup for spring becomes obvious: buyers are going to feel pressure.

We would be genuinely surprised if we didn’t see a meaningful price bump across the Inner East Bay in Q1, particularly for well-located and turnkey single-family homes. 

So… what does that mean for you?

Sellers

Opportunity is knocking.

If you’ve been on the fence, have a tenant vacating, or are approaching an interest-rate adjustment, now is a smart time to get clarity. We’re happy to provide a realistic opinion of value and walk through estimated net proceeds so you can evaluate your options with real numbers—not guesses.

Buyers

A few realities to plan for:

Expect contract prices that exceed Q3/Q4 2025 comps—sometimes by a meaningful margin.

For single-family homes in premier Berkeley, Oakland, and Alameda neighborhoods, you’ll often want to shop 20–35% below your true budget to leave room to compete.

Don’t overlook listings sitting 21+ days on market—these can be some of the best opportunities if you know how to approach them.

Work with a top-tier local lender who can close in 15 days or less. This matters—a lot—and can help you compete directly with cash. We’re happy to make introductions.

Avoid panic-buying properties with long-term resale issues (busy streets, awkward layouts, chronic drawbacks). There are smarter compromises—and we can help you identify them.

Prioritize a long-term hold. Buying something you can comfortably see yourself owning for 10+ years is one of the best ways to protect value and equity through market cycles.

Will it be competitive?
Yes.

Have we seen this movie before?
Many, many times.

And the good news is—you don’t have to navigate it alone.
We’ve got your back.

Below is a snapshot of where Alameda County wrapped up at the end of 2025…