2024's Most Competitive San Francisco Neighborhood (and Some Alternatives!)

For many people who were looking to buy a home in San Francisco in 2024 (or actually in 2020, 2021, 2022, etc.), the answer to "what's the most competitive neighborhood in San Francisco?" will come as no surprise. 

The hottest neighborhood in San Francisco in 2024?

……The Sunset District!

That's right: District 2 on the real estate map encompasses many of the westernmost neighborhoods south of Golden Gate Park. It includes all of the Sunset and Parkside neighborhoods, as well as Golden Gate Heights. It was the frothiest of all Districts in 2024. 

How do you measure how competitive different neighborhoods are?

We decided to compare the median list price vs. sales price, to see where overbidding was the hottest. 

Here's what the numbers say:

In District 2 (Sunset/Parkside) the MEDIAN overbid in 2024 was 16% 

Second place was District 4 (West Portal, Forest Hill, Monterey Heights, Westwood Park, Diamond Heights, Miraloma Park, and surrounding neighborhoods), where the median overbid was 7.9%

On the other side of the spectrum, the Least Competitive districts were District 6 (Hayes Valley, Alamo Square, Western Addition, NOPA) and District 9 (SOMA, South Beach, Mission, Bernal Heights), where homes sold for a median of 100% of the list price (neither over nor underbid). Which just goes to show what passes for a "slow" market in San Francisco! 

Why are those areas so hot?

This reflects a shift in buyer mentality that happened during COVID. Buyers have been putting a high premium on more interior and exterior living space, and on access to public parks and outdoor recreation. This has meant an increase in demand for single family homes, with many buyers competing specifically in the <$2MM market. And has meant that the once-overlooked western neighborhoods near GGP and Ocean Beach have risen in popularity. While blue chip neighborhoods like Pacific Heights, Noe Valley, Cole Valley, Russian Hill, etc. are still very much in demand, the number of buyers who can afford a single family home in those areas is much smaller. 

Some more stats:

In 2024….

72.4% of single family homes sold over asking city-wide

34.9% of condos sold over asking city-wide

Can you avoid the crowds and score the home you want?

Now, don't get us wrong: We love the Sunset/Parkside neighborhoods, and we love helping people win the home of their dreams there! 

BUT… if savage bidding wars aren't your thing, or you're finding your budget stretched too thin by prices in the hottest locations, we have some suggestions. 

This might seem like an obvious one but…. Consider a condo. You might find yourself with more space, a better location, and a smaller mortgage. Condos in SF come in all shapes and sizes; Victorian charmers, swank mid-century pads, crisp modern homes in the sky, and everything in between. 

Absolutely positively must have a single family home on a <$2MM budget? 

The sleeper alternative to The Sunset last year was District 3. (Ingleside, Merced Manor, Oceanview, Lakeside, Merced Heights, Ingleside Heights).

Home buyers can find single family homes there, often in a similar style to Sunset homes, but with much friendlier numbers and less competition. 

Check out the numbers - 

Median Sales Price:

District 2 - $1,530,000

District 3 - $1,250,000

Median % sales price to list price:

District 2 - 116.7%

District 3 - 107.3%

Buying a home is a very personal thing. It's a Goldilocks-style journey of trying on different styles, sizes and locations to find the one that's juuuuust right. We're experts at helping people navigate every step between here and "home". Contact us today for a consultation, even if you're not sure where you are in the process! We're here to help.

Brought to you by the top real estate agents at Pacific Edge Real Estate Group