What's Ahead for the Spring Market

"Among all forms of mistake, prophesy is the most gratuitous." - George Eliot

You may have noticed that we're typically reluctant to engage in forecasting. That said: sometimes the tea leaves are speaking to us. 

Or in this case, shouting at us. 

50+ offers on some homes in December? It's true; we saw it happen more than once last month, during the typically sleepy holiday season. That means at least 49 frustrated buyers in each of those inventory-crunched market segments. 49 buyers who won't see new homes for sale until mid-January when even more competition will be entering the fray. 

Start with reduced interest rates, add a generous helping of AI Boom plus a sprinkle of a very spicy rental market, and it's a recipe for a very challenging spring season for buyers. 

We'd be very surprised not to see a notable price bump across the board in SF this Q1. 

So what to do about it?

Sellers: Opportunity is knocking.  If you've been on the fence about a move, have a tenant vacating this season or an upcoming interest rate adjustment, etc, contact us for an accurate opinion of value and your estimated net proceeds after sale. 

Buyers: 

• Don't get caught off guard; you'll likely see contract prices that are higher than comparable sales from Q3/Q4 2025 would support. 

• If you're on the hunt for a single family home, expect to be looking at places priced 20%-40% under your target budget, to give yourself room to overbid. 

• Don't sleep on the rare homes with 21+ days on the market  

• Get a superstar local lender who can close in 15 days or less. This will help you compete with all-cash offers. Contact us for a rec and an intro

• Avoid pivoting to a seriously resale-compromised property just out of frustration. Buying a home on a main thoroughfare, for example, will likely not serve you in the long run. There are smarter compromises you can make - we can help guide you. 

• Focus on a long-term hold. It's highly preferable to buy something you can foresee owning for 10 years or more. This will help protect your value and equity. 

Will it be challenging? Yep! 

Have we seen it all before? Ooooh yes, many, MANY times. 

…So don't worry, we've got your back! 

Here's a market snapshot from the end of 2025: